The Earliest Year

During the 1970s, in my first years in Arctic Alaska, people would talk about it being a “late year” or “early year” when discussing the timing of snowmelt, arrival of birds, flowering of plants, or the melting of sea ice. It was generally assumed one would rarely or ever see an “average year” but that over time annual variation would produce approximately equal numbers of late and early years with no reason to believe there would be any long-term trend to earlier or later years during the course of one’s lifetime.

That proved to be true for the first fifteen years monitoring the timing of breeding of Cooper Island’s Black Guillemot colony. One of the best ways of measuring the timing of breeding in a seabird colony is to obtain the median date of egg laying – the date when half of the breeding females in the colony have started to lay eggs.Corrected median date of egg laying

From 1975 to 1989 the median egg was laid in late June or early July. However, in 1990 the consistency of the previous 15 years was broken as egg laying occurred approximately one week earlier than in previous years. The start of the breeding season for the Black Guillemots on Cooper Island is related to the timing of snow melt because winter snow blocks the entrances to the ground level nest cavities and females need access to a nest before they will begin to form eggs. The shift in timing of breeding beginning in 1990 reflected a change in regional atmospheric circulation (the Arctic Oscillation) that resulted in warmer spring temperatures, earlier snow melt and earlier egg laying.

While the early breeding in 1990 was a major surprise at the time, what was almost more surprising was that the it was followed by a quarter century with no trend in the timing of egg laying at all – just an approximately equal numbers of early and late years, centered around a new average.

It is the two periods of relative stability (1975-1989 and 1990-2014) in the guillemot’s timing of breeding that make the findings on Cooper Island in 2015 and 2016 all the more intriguing. Last year’s 2015 field season saw the median date of egg laying occur on June 19, three days earlier than the previous early record and 6 days earlier than the 1990-2014 average. The early 2015 season followed record warm spring temperatures recorded at NOAA’s Observatory 20 miles away in Barrow.

This year things were again warm in Barrow with snowmelt at NOAA’s observatory the earliest on record and I assumed it would again be an early year on Cooper Island. But I was surprised at just how early it has been, with the median date of egg laying occurring on June 16, three days earlier than last year and more than two weeks earlier than the timing of egg laying when the study started in the late 1970s. 

Early egg laying is typically considered a good thing for Arctic birds, as it provides more time for raising young before fall migration. For the Black Guillemots, however, the warmth that has been melting snow and allowing earlier breeding has also been melting the sea ice in the adjacent Arctic Ocean. Black Guillemots in the Arctic are adapted to feeding in the cold waters around the sea ice where they can find their preferred prey, Arctic Cod. For the last 15 years, loss of sea ice in late July and August, when parents are feeding their young on Cooper Island, has caused a lack of food resulting in lower fledging weights, higher nestling mortality, and overall decreased nesting success. Black Guillemot chicks are just beginning to hatch now (mid-July) and will remain in the nest for the next five to six weeks. The ice-associated prey available to their parents may be again limited this year as the sea ice melt has been on a near record pace and a recent satellite image shows most of the waters used by Cooper Island’s guillemots are already free of ice.

cooper_isl_july_13_2016_modis_ice-01

All species and ecosystem processes in the Arctic have annual cycles tied to the timing of spring snow melt, which is trending earlier due to climate warming. The 42-year data set on the timing of Black Guillemot breeding on Cooper Island provides unique insights into the biological consequences of the well-documented physical changes occurring in the Arctic. Unfortunately there are very few multi-decadal data sets documenting the changes that have occurred to Arctic species, and that paucity of data makes the study on Cooper Island’s Black Guillemots all the more important to preserve and continue.


 

The Cooper Island study is maintained by donations to our nonprofit, Friends of Cooper Island, a 501(c)3.  Your donation will help us continue to monitor a warming Arctic. 

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The eggs at J-09

Earliest breeding season in 42 years

The record setting snowmelt in Barrow this spring has resulted in the earliest breeding season for the Black Guillemots on Cooper Island in the 42 years the colony has been studied.

Median date of egg laying (when 50 percent of the nests have eggs) was June 16th. Three days earlier than the previous record – set in 2015. Early breeding is important this summer as birds may be able to have their young fledge before the major loss of sea ice predicted for August.

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Guillemot Early Breeding Season and New Cooper Island Publications

 

george_takesoff

George Divoky and North Slope Borough Search & Rescue pilot Brian Burke preparing the helicopter for the flight out to Cooper Island June 11.

Fieldwork at the Black Guillemot colony on Cooper Island began in early June, where I began the fifth decade of research on a remote island in a rapidly changing Arctic. Just how rapidly that change is occurring was obvious on the first day in the field, June 11, 2015, when I discovered that egg laying had already begun, with the first egg laid some two weeks earlier than the average date of the first egg over the last four decades. The early laying was a direct result of an extremely early snowmelt in Arctic Alaska that provided Black Guillemots access to nest cavities in late May. A future post will have more details on what the unprecedented timing of this breeding season means for the Cooper Island guillemot colony and in the context of the forty years of observations of breeding chronology that precede it.

I discovered that egg laying had already begun, with the first egg laid some two weeks earlier than the average date of the first egg over the last four decades.

While long-term changes in snowmelt are affecting the start of the guillemots’ breeding season, long-term changes in summer sea ice extent have been changing their breeding success at the end of breeding season.  Two papers examining how the decadal decreases in sea ice extent have affected the guillemots’ ability to feed their nestlings were included in a special issue of the journal Progress in Oceanography containing papers generated as part of the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR).  SOAR is an initiative of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) and seeks to have researchers collaborate on multidisciplinary analyses utilizing complementary data sets.

Two Recent Publications on Cooper Island Research are Now Available

Effects of recent decreases in arctic sea ice on an ice-associated marine bird

by G.J. Divoky, P.M. Lukacs, and M.L. Druckenmiller
Download the full PDF article

This paper examines how changes in sea ice extent and sea surface temperature have affected Black Guillemot prey availability during the nesting period – comparing a historic (1975-1984) period with a recent one (2003-2012).  The graphical abstract below shows how much summer ice has changed over the past four decades. That loss and the concurrent increases in sea surface temperature have reduced availability of Arctic Cod, the guillemots preferred prey, with subsequent decreases in nesting growth and survival. This paper is featured on the Nature Climate Change website.

Graphical abstract draft with chicks and fish labeled and arrows

Change in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem: diverging trends in body condition and/or production in five marine vertebrate species

by  L.A. Harwood, T.G Smith, J.C. George, S.J. Sandstrom, W. Walkusz, and G.J. Divoky
Download the full PDF article

This paper is a synthesis of trends in five species in the Beaufort Sea (bowhead whale, Arctic char, ringed seal, beluga and black guillemots).   While the first two species appear to be benefiting from recent decrease in sea ice, the others are seeing declines in condition, growth or reproduction. This article is available online for the the Progress in Oceanography Journal.

Cooper Island location

Study area and locations from the article. Cooper Island is 40 km southeast of Point Barrow.

This summer we hope to post weekly updates from the field on the guillemots’ breeding success, polar bear visits, and the challenges in conducting research on an isolated island. You may want to bookmark this site if you want to follow how the guillemots are doing as our study enters its fifth decade.

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